The medium-term (60 hours) ampacity forecast software.
ADR Horizon uses weather forecast data (from external weather forecasting models –Ampacimon works with a number of providers-), correlating them to the historical real-time ampacity and weather parameters (notably wind, measured directly on the line by ADR Sense) measured on the line.
Machine learning, predictive algorithms allow providing the operator with datasets of ampacity forecasts corresponding to different confidence intervals (98th percentile, corresponding to the confidence intervals used for static rating, down to 50%, for a more aggressive grid configuration). The algorithm controls for the required confidence interval, in order to ensure that the provided data will statistically not exceed real-time ampacity more often than the prescribed probability.
The combination of ADR Horizon robust algorithms and ADR Sense ability to physically measure key parameters such as wind provide TSOs with an unparalleled and powerful tool to both use their grid in complete safety and security, and fully exploit the far greater ampacity gains provided by wind (which has to be considerably downgraded if not ignored altogether with all other systems, for lack of reliable physical measurements).
ADR Horizon provides the operator with 1 hour of interval data, refreshed every 6 hours, for the next 60 hours. As many data sets can be generated, for different requested confidence intervals, paving the way for stochastics grid operation models.
Typical ampacity gains generated by ADR Horizon on overhead lines can be expected to average at around 20%, as follows (Belgium line, 24h forecast, 98th percentile, gains vs seasonal rating. Obviously it also depends on minimum ground clearance to be met or the allowed conductor max temperature):
The above graph shows the statistical distribution of ampacity gains (vs seasonal ratings) with (blue curve) and without (red curve) taking into account the effect of wind on Day-ahead (24h) forecasts (green curve is real time). It shows that “temperature only” gains culminate at around 20%, while “wind-included” forecast can reach as much as 70% gains. A median gain of around 20% can be expected when accounting for wind, while it is only 10% with temperature only.
Cross border capacity: not enough and underused Date: MAY 19, 2020 – lunchtime 12.30 to 13.45 CEST [...]